POLYMARKET PULSE

Weekly market evidence · Polymarket Pulse Research

Polymarket Biggest Movers This Week (July 6–13, 2026)

A reproducible ranking of the largest observed YES-probability shifts in our production snapshot set. This is a data record, not a story about why a market moved.

Window: 2026-07-06T09:30:00Z → 2026-07-13T09:30:00Z · Generated: 2026-07-13T09:42:29.819507Z · Ranked by absolute net change

Markets evaluated192
Top observed gainer+32.0 pp
Top observed decline-47.8 pp

Largest net shifts

The same qualified set shown on a common percentage-point scale.

01. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 Week of July 13 2026? -47.8 pp 02. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of July 13 2026? -44.0 pp 03. Will AfD win the most seats in 1 German state election in September 2026? -39.3 pp 04. Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%? -39.1 pp 05. Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%? -34.0 pp 06. Over $16M committed to the Credible public sale? +32.0 pp 07. Over $14M committed to the Credible public sale? +30.5 pp 08. Will AfD win the most seats in 2 German state elections in September 2026? +27.5 pp 09. Will Mallory McMorrow endorse Abdul El-Sayed in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? -26.0 pp 10. Will AA Ponte Preta win on 2026-07-18? -25.5 pp

Weekly movers table

Start and end use the first and last observed YES midpoint inside the report window. Range is the observed weekly minimum–maximum.

#MarketStartEndNetRangeLiquiditySpreadSamples
01 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 Week of July 13 2026?general 50.5% 2.7% -47.8 pp 2.7%–50.5% $3.1K 3.4 pp 29
02 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of July 13 2026?general 50.5% 6.5% -44.0 pp 5.7%–50.5% $2.4K 1.0 pp 29
03 Will AfD win the most seats in 1 German state election in September 2026?general 44.0% 4.7% -39.3 pp 4.0%–58.0% $6.9K 5.6 pp 64
04 Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?general 44.0% 4.9% -39.1 pp 4.7%–44.0% $6.1K 6.3 pp 64
05 Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%?general 44.0% 10.0% -34.0 pp 10.0%–46.5% $6.9K 2.0 pp 64
06 Over $16M committed to the Credible public sale?general 49.0% 81.0% +32.0 pp 49.0%–92.5% $5.9K 2.0 pp 50
07 Over $14M committed to the Credible public sale?general 51.0% 81.5% +30.5 pp 51.0%–93.0% $4.5K 1.0 pp 50
08 Will AfD win the most seats in 2 German state elections in September 2026?general 44.5% 72.0% +27.5 pp 43.0%–81.5% $10.5K 2.0 pp 64
09 Will Mallory McMorrow endorse Abdul El-Sayed in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?general 44.0% 18.0% -26.0 pp 8.5%–44.0% $5.5K 4.0 pp 64
10 Will AA Ponte Preta win on 2026-07-18?general 45.0% 19.5% -25.5 pp 19.5%–47.0% $9.7K 3.0 pp 68

Methodology

Active markets only; latest observation no more than 3 hours before the report cutoff; at least 48 observed hours and 20 distinct samples; latest liquidity of at least $1,000; latest YES spread no wider than 15 percentage points; ending probability between 2% and 98%.

YES midpoint is (best bid + best ask) / 2 when both are available, with snapshot YES price as fallback. We rank by absolute start-to-end change, not intraperiod volatility. Every row exposes its sample count so sparse coverage is visible.

Interpretation limit: these are observed shifts in Pulse snapshots. They do not establish a catalyst, predict the outcome, or constitute financial advice.