POLYMARKET PULSE

Weekly market evidence · Polymarket Pulse Research

Polymarket Biggest Movers This Week (August 3–10, 2026)

A reproducible ranking of the largest observed YES-probability shifts in our production snapshot set. This is a data record, not a story about why a market moved.

Window: 2026-08-03T08:00:00Z → 2026-08-10T08:00:00Z · Generated: 2026-08-11T06:43:03.462524Z · Ranked by absolute net change

Markets evaluated97
Top observed gainer+51.0 pp
Top observed decline-31.0 pp

Largest net shifts

The same qualified set shown on a common percentage-point scale.

01. Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? +51.0 pp 02. Will Trump say "Ballroom" this week? +41.0 pp 03. Will Angie Craig win Ramsey County in the Minnesota Democratic Senate primary? -31.0 pp 04. NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31? -30.5 pp 05. Situational Awareness raises new capital by August 31? -9.5 pp 06. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Deportivo Alavés: Both Teams to Score -8.0 pp 07. Will Daylight Savings Time become permanent in the US in 2026? +7.5 pp 08. Will monthly inflation stay flat (0.0%) in July? +5.5 pp 09. Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections? +5.0 pp 10. Will AfD win the most seats in 2 German state elections in September 2026? +5.0 pp

Weekly movers table

Start and end use the first and last observed YES midpoint inside the report window. Range is the observed weekly minimum–maximum.

#MarketStartEndNetRangeLiquiditySpreadSamples
01 Will Trump say "Transgender" this week?general 43.0% 94.0% +51.0 pp 43.0%–94.0% $2.4K 4.0 pp 44
02 Will Trump say "Ballroom" this week?general 43.0% 84.0% +41.0 pp 43.0%–85.0% $1.4K 6.0 pp 44
03 Will Angie Craig win Ramsey County in the Minnesota Democratic Senate primary?general 36.5% 5.5% -31.0 pp 4.5%–70.5% $12.5K 1.0 pp 46
04 NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?general 63.0% 32.5% -30.5 pp 28.0%–71.5% $2.1K 3.0 pp 89
05 Situational Awareness raises new capital by August 31?general 27.0% 17.5% -9.5 pp 17.5%–33.0% $3.8K 1.0 pp 89
06 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Deportivo Alavés: Both Teams to Scoregeneral 49.5% 41.5% -8.0 pp 41.0%–49.5% $1.1K 9.0 pp 57
07 Will Daylight Savings Time become permanent in the US in 2026?general 14.0% 21.5% +7.5 pp 14.0%–33.5% $1.8K 1.0 pp 89
08 Will monthly inflation stay flat (0.0%) in July?general 28.0% 33.5% +5.5 pp 23.5%–35.5% $10.7K 3.0 pp 89
09 Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections?general 85.5% 90.5% +5.0 pp 85.0%–90.5% $15.0K 3.0 pp 89
10 Will AfD win the most seats in 2 German state elections in September 2026?general 71.5% 76.5% +5.0 pp 71.5%–82.0% $14.1K 1.0 pp 89

Methodology

Active markets only; latest observation no more than 3 hours before the report cutoff; at least 48 observed hours and 20 distinct samples; latest liquidity of at least $1,000; latest YES spread no wider than 15 percentage points; ending probability between 2% and 98%.

YES midpoint is (best bid + best ask) / 2 when both are available, with snapshot YES price as fallback. We rank by absolute start-to-end change, not intraperiod volatility. Every row exposes its sample count so sparse coverage is visible.

Interpretation limit: these are observed shifts in Pulse snapshots. They do not establish a catalyst, predict the outcome, or constitute financial advice.